Got a Job? You’re in Good Company
by Osman Parvez ---- I've said it before and I'll say it again. In real estate, for primary home markets (not vacation homes), employment is the critical factor. Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal had a piece on the unemployment rate, as measured by the number of Americans who register for jobless benefits. Curiously, the number of people registering has remained essentially constant even as the workforce has expanded. From A Jobless Stat That Has Kept Its Measure, by Mark Gongloff (link, subscription req'd): Since July 1978, the U.S. labor force has grown more than 50% to 154 million people from [...]
Boulder’s House Size Battle
by Osman Parvez ---- The City has put together a website to keep people informed of what's happening in efforts to limit house sizes. The site has background, next steps, documentation, and other useful information. Next up? A meeting on June 27 (tomorrow) where the City will consider several potential consultants. Residents are invited to observe. Unfortunately, I can't attend but if you happen to go, please leave a comment and let me know your impressions. Friday, June 27 at 1pm City Council Chambers 1777 Broadway ---- Like this analysis? Subscribe to our client research report. Want [...]
Boulder – #2 for Tech Jobs
by Osman Parvez ---- Right on cue, here's Business Week with Technology: It's Where the Jobs Are: The highest concentration of technology workers—286 for every 1,000 workers—was in, no surprise, Silicon Valley. Boulder, Colo., came in second, with 230, and Huntsville, Ala.; Durham, N.C.; and Washington rounded out the top five in density. Of course, as everyone knows from our regional experience with telecom, having a concentration can also cause trouble if the sector experiences a sharp downturn. The good news is that we appear to be moving towards greater diversification. We may soon become the country's leader in alternative [...]
Boulder Tomorrow + Affordable Housing Study
by Osman Parvez ---- Here's a new site worth checking out: Boulder Tomorrow It's mission is to "serve members of the Boulder community by providing interesting information and links to issues taking place in and around Boulder. We hope it will encourage you to get involved." That sounds admirable. Given the number of issues that crop up around here, if the organizers keep up with it, it should get plenty of traffic. From the about us page: Boulder Tomorrow is a professional organization of business and community leaders who know how to get things done. We're nonpartisan and not for [...]
2008 Remodeled House Tour
by Osman Parvez ---- Want to see how people have remodeled in South Boulder? Join us at the 2008 Martin Acres House Tour. It's a community event where you'll meet the owners and learn about how they've made big and small changes to their property. Silver Fern Homes is glad to support the 2008 house tour as a corporate sponsor. The event will be held this Saturday, May 3rd from 11am to 2pm. For details, please visit the neighborhood association's website. Tickets are only $2 and can be picked up at any of the participating homes. As you probably know, [...]
The Fed’s Foreclosure Map (New!)
by Osman Parvez ---- There's a new foreclosure map worth checking out. The Federal Reserve's dynamic map is a very powerful tool for seeing current areas in trouble and possibly forecasting the future. You can zoom down to the City level and see the difference between zip codes, toggling between Subprime and Alt-A loans. In Colorado 6.8% of subprime loans are in foreclosure and 1.9% of Alt-A loans. Here's a few maps I generated from the site (darker= higher percentage): Subprime loans that have had a late payment in the last 12 months: Subprime loans that were originated with low [...]
Why The Downside Is Limited
by Osman Parvez ---- A few comments have suggested that my recent downside estimate for the Boulder market was too shallow. If you're sitting on the sidelines looking for our local (or broader regional) market to collapse like the former bubbles, you'll probably be disappointed. Here's why. Enter the wayback machine and look at my post from two years ago comparing the Denver market with bubble markets. After showing you how these markets compare and overlaying trends, I wrote: Thus, more support for the notion there's no housing bubble in Boulder or Denver. Even so, we will still be impacted [...]
Council Backs Off on Home Size Limits… For Now
by Osman Parvez ---- Phew! The Camera is reporting that City Council is backing off their efforts to limit home sizes in Boulder. The foolishness of doing it as an emergency measure now, as the national economy moves into what could be a deep recession, finally clicked home. Public outcry and a recommendation by the Boulder Planning Board not to move forward with a temporary ordinance limiting house sizes prompted the City Council to put the issue on hold late Tuesday night. In a surprise move after 10 p.m., the council voted unanimously not to hear a first reading of [...]
FAR Issue Tonight
by Osman Parvez ---- If efforts by City Council to limit house sizes in Boulder concern you, I encourage you to attend or watch tonight's meeting. If you wish to speak, better arrive early to sign up (I recommend a few minutes before sign up opens at 5). Here's the press release... --- FAR issue on Planning Board meeting agenda Thursday A public hearing with the Planning Board is scheduled for 5 p.m. on Thursday, April 3, in the City Council Chambers, 1777 Broadway, regarding approaches to interim regulations that may provide additional limitations in single family zoning districts aimed [...]
Feeling Just a Little Bit More Cautious…
by Osman Parvez ---- If you're a regular reader of House Einstein, you already know that the Boulder real estate market is finally starting to feel the slowdown. It may be hard to see that from the monthly update analysis, but it's clear when I clean up the data. In a few days I'll update the indexes for the 1st Quarter. In the meantime, USA Today is reporting on the health of our local market (full article). Despite the chill in home sales across the nation, Boulder, Colo.'s mortgage market remains warm and healthy. The city, nestled in the foothills [...]
City Council – What, Me Worry?
by Osman Parvez ---- An email was posted on the City Council hotline providing staff's initial answers to Council Member Wilson's questions. Three items are of deep concern ---Questions of Deep Concern---(staff's responses are in italics. My responses are bracketed). 7. How would property values be impacted with an interim ordinance? I know this is difficult, but we should put some thought into it. Although we will not be able to address the economic impacts of an interim ordinance, we will try and research other communities' experiences since many communities across the country have enacted ordinances that limit the size [...]
House Size Limits – Get Involved!
by Osman Parvez ---- Do you care about City Council's recent efforts to limit the potential of your property? Here's two ways for you to get involved! 1. Join a group dedicated to understanding this issue and finding ways to address it. Email rationalplanning@gmail.com for details on how to join. 2. Take a survey. City Council wants to know about your specific situation, and how proposed regulations could affect you. Click HERE to complete an online survey (it should take no more than five minutes). The survey is anonymous. Questions generally refer to where you currently live and how the [...]
Can You Hear Me Now?
by Osman Parvez ---- If you ever want to speak in front of City Council, better show up early. At last night's meeting, sign-up began at 5pm but only the first 15 people were allowed to speak before the meeting's agenda commenced. That left dozens of people waiting nearly two hours before the public hearing was resumed. When I first started hearing the feedback, I admit I was a little concerned. A seemingly organized group of senior citizens, most living near each other, were among the first to the microphone. They spoke in favor of an immediate emergency measure to [...]
FAR Vote Delayed, Public Hearing Tonight
by Osman Parvez ---- The Camera is reporting that City Council has decided to delay the vote on the proposed ordinance to April 1st. Yes, April Fool's Day. Apparently it was the overwhelming response from Boulder residents that caused City Council to reconsider the urgency surrounding this issue. There will be a meeting tonight at 6pm to discuss the provisions of the ordinance. If you want to speak, you should come early. According to the City's website, the list to sign up for speaking opens at 5pm. ---- Like this analysis? Subscribe to our client research report. [...]
A Letter to City Council of Boulder
by Osman Parvez ---- City Council will hold a public hearing tomorrow on new restrictions to house sizes. I've encouraged residents of Boulder to voice their concerns by writing an email to City Council and by attending tomorrow's meeting. If you'd like to let city council know your thoughts on the matter, send them an email at council@bouldercolorado.gov. Here is my email to City Council: Dear City Council Members, My name is Osman Parvez and I live in Boulder. Together with my wife, I run a small, independent real estate brokerage. We own a small home in South Boulder and [...]
