Case Shiller Deja Vu – Feeling Bubbly
by Osman Parvez Flippers are back. Rookie real estate agents are entering the business in droves. Inventory is scarce and desperate buyers are bidding up prices. Welcome to 2015. It looks a lot like 2005, minus the inventory scarcity. Take a look at the Case-Shiller index for Denver. - Nobody is talking about it, but the index has exceeded the peak level of 2006. - It's extremely difficult to predict the top or the bottom of a market cycle. Pay close attention to inventory and sales volume. If you haven't already, subscribe to our research, "like" our Facebook page, and follow our [...]
Boulder Real Estate’s High End Sales Distribution [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez If you're planning to acquire property at the higher end of Boulder's real estate market, caution is warranted. This market is getting very bubbly and certain locations have little history of supporting higher valuations. When the market turns (believe me, it will), the weakest locations are likely to see steep declines. This is what happened during the last real estate cycle. I regularly provide advice to higher end buyers in Boulder. Asset value preservation tops the list of their concerns. Suitability, their family's needs follows closely. Speculative potential is usually last. If you want to make a smarter real estate [...]
What’s It Worth? FAR LESS Than You Thought
by Osman Parvez About a month ago, I told you about a 5325 Hickory Avenue. I asked you to play a game: What It's Worth. Here are the results. 17 people provided their best estimates of the eventual sale price. Estimates ranged from a low of $549,000 to a high of $698,700, a spread of nearly $150,000. The average estimate was $616,517. The house closed on January 8th. The actual sale price? $565,000 or about 6% BELOW the asking price. In a market with record low inventory and intense buyer demand, this is shocking. What happened? A [...]
By the Numbers | December
by Osman Parvez Here's a fresh look at the Boulder market, with data through the end of last month. 45 houses sold during December, 18% for more than the asking price. Despite the bidding wars, the median negotiated discount was 1.5%. Let's take a closer look at the numbers... A couple of things to note As prices move upward, so do the negotiated discounts. Within the data set are a few transactions with large discounts and premiums. Market knowledge is power. Mis-pricing is caused by lack of knowledge. It usually results in leaving money on the [...]
$1MM+ Sales SPIKE [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez 2014 saw a massive increase in high end home sales in Boulder. Here's the chart you won't find anywhere else: Within the City of Boulder, 161 $1MM+ houses closed this year - up a massive 24%. This follows a 25% increase from the previous year. Note: I'm talking about "houses." $1MM+ condos and town homes saw a 37% decrease in sales volume this year, most likely driven by scarce inventory. Caution Signs Are Flashing With the stock market recording large gains this year, it's tempting to reallocate and deploy capital in Boulder real [...]
What’s it Worth? [Bidding Wars]
by Osman Parvez Psst... armchair Boulder real estate analysts. Are you ready to play What's it Worth? Yesterday, I took a buyer to see 5325 Hickory Ave. My client was running late (sick kid) and while I waited, no fewer than EIGHT people saw the house. It was like watching ants devour a piece of candy. It's hard to believe it's mid December. The first group had clipboards and measuring tape. They looked like architects or possibly employees of a design-build firm. The second group came in fancy pickup trucks with out of town plates. I chatted with them while [...]
Google’s New Boulder Campus and More [Weekend Reading]
by Osman Parvez Ready for some weekend reading? Here's a quick roundup of interesting real estate tidbits for your reading pleasure. 1. Google's new Boulder Campus gains preliminary approval. This is a huge deal. Once constructed, the new facility will allow Big G's Boulder employee base to grow to around 1,500 people. The impact to Boulder housing will be substantial, particularly at the mid range of the market. Here's why. Most of these employees will make too much to qualify for affordable housing and yet not have enough resources to take down $1MM+ homes. That means the mid range is [...]
End of Summer Boulder Market Wrap Up [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez Ready for another look at market conditions in Boulder? Straight to the charts... This chart shows total inventory for houses (blue) and condos and town Homes (orange). Total inventory (which includes pending, active/backup, and active listings) has been dropping from late June through Labor Day. There are now 25% fewer houses on the market. Condos and town homes have fallen 33%. If you're a regular blog reader, you know that this seasonal pattern is normal for Boulder. Inventory grows in January and peaks in June before reaching a bottom in December. What's [...]
Narrowing the Gap [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez Boulder real estate is cheap. What's that you say? Huh? Oh sure, it's pricey when you compare it to places like Omaha and Kansas City. Try comparing it to places you'd actually want to live - communities with fantastic public schools, a healthy economy, amazing weather and outdoor rec opportunities, a highly educated population, a research university, and proximity to a major airport hub. It's a short list. It's no secret why Boulder keeps attracting new residents (here's why). Despite the relentless demand, we're not building significant amounts of new housing within city limits. [...]
City Budget Swells to Supersize
by Osman Parvez So - just how big is the City of Boulder's budget? I don't know about you, but I find myself wondering every time I see our municipal fleet rolling around town. specialty vehicles for all! In case you don't have time to sift through hundreds of pages of budget-ese, I'll tell you. The total 2014 budget is $269.5 million, or about $2,700 for each and every Boulder resident. 84% is for operating purposes, the rest allocated to capital improvements. Here's something that should concern you. Boulder's budget has grown an average of 6.2% over the past [...]
Sorry Boulder Sellers, You Blew It.
by Osman Parvez Ahh... Autumn's in the air. If you're a boulder real estate seller, I've got bad news for you. The summer selling season is OVER. The following charts show the percentage change in Inventory from about two months ago. As you can see in the charts above, active listings - those you can actually buy - have dropped nearly 10% for houses and a whopping 25% for attached dwellings (condos, townhomes, etc). Listings that are pending (about to close) or under contract have fallen a massive 38% for houses and 30% for attached dwellings, respectively. note: [...]
Don’t Wait, Adjust Your Strategy NOW
by Osman Parvez Heads up. The summer real estate season in Boulder is coming to a close. If you're still in the market to buy or sell, it's time to adjust your strategy. Take a look at inventory trends during the month of July. The chart above shows attached dwelling inventory (i.e. town homes and condos) in the City of Boulder from the end of June through today, July 30. The blue line is available, the orange line is under contract, and the grey line is pending. Since the end of June, available attached dwellings have dropped 18% [...]
Eye Candy and Boulder Sales Volume – Analyze This
by Osman Parvez --- Ready for more analysis of Boulder real estate? Check out the following. You're looking at sales volume for the period January 1 to June 15 for the past several years. Houses are green, town homes and condos are orange (a nice peas and carrots effect, don't you think?) Real estate closings have slowed. Condos and town home sales have dropped about 4% but home sales have fallen far more. Sales volume is down nearly 21%. Don't trust one of my competitors telling you differently. They're selling you something (or clueless). [...]
MORE Bad Data (Inventory in Boulder and Louisville)
by Osman Parvez Time for a quick look at inventory in Boulder and Louisville. First a couple of details. I'll explain why these distinctions are important in a moment. Available inventory = all property not under contract + property with a first right of refusal. The vast majority of first right properties will not sell to the party who retains that right of purchase, so I'm treating it as available (and so should you). Under contract = property that is under contract with a buyer (i.e. listed as active/backup) + pending status listings. Pending usually means the property [...]
The Market is Hot for $1MM Boulder Condos, Right? WRONG [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez Sorry, it's been a while since I last posted. Clients are my #1 priority and we're now in the busy season for real estate in Boulder. Expect blog postings to remain slim during the summer. If you want me to represent you (buying or selling), just call me at 303.746.6896. I'll give you the straight talk, no hand waving or pushy sales pitch. The Boulder Condo and Town Home Market Google your way around the net. You won't often find much in the way of analysis on market conditions for Boulder condos and town [...]
