Denver and Boulder Foreclosures
by Osman Parvez Denver and Boulder Foreclosures. There's a new piece from the Rocky Mountain News proclaiming an increase in foreclosures in 2005. The headlines scream, "Foreclosure Fatigue, '05 worst in 15 years!" It sounds like the housing market is collapsing, doesn't it? Well the sky isn't exactly falling here in the Denver/Boulder region. Read behind the attention getting headlines. What do you find? The number of foreclosures isn't adjusted for the base of homes. In other words, it doesn't take into account the greater number of homes (and homeowners) that exist today than in previous years. Buried in the [...]
Do You Think There’s a Bubble?
by Osman Parvez Do you think there's a bubble? According to a recent survey of 4,000 consumers, 66% of respondents believe there is. Of those, 58.7 percent believe the bubble will burst within a year and 41.3% think the bubble will still be alive and well a year from now. Few believe that real estate will suffer as badly as the stock market did when the bubble burst in 2001. The results of this survey aren't surprising given the endless media hype about the bubble. The opportunity within bubble mania is within its potential cooling affect across all real estate [...]
Pop? What Pop?
by Osman Parvez What Pop? Here's an interesting Business Week article noting the surprising strength in housing. It points to still low interest rates, a strong economy, and growth in income and profits as the likely factors driving the trend. As we've said several times in our research reports, there is likely a bubble in a number of markets (particularly in coastal metro areas). Meanwhile our region (the Denver/Boulder area) has not experienced a wide-spread real estate bubble. During the years most bubble watchers consider prime, our market was relatively flat. Of course, there are some areas that have (long standing) [...]
Foreclosures Drop by 29% in Colorado
by Osman Parvez The state reported 2,568 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, one for every 713 households. This represents 2x the national average, however the state's foreclosure rate dropped from first place to fifth place among all of the states in October. Meanwhile, nationwide foreclosures in October were up 19%. Here's the press release. --- Like this analysis? Subscribe to my research. Ready to buy or sell? Click HERE to schedule an appointment or call 303.746.6896. As always, your referrals are deeply appreciated. The ideas and strategies described in this blog are the [...]
Existing Home Sales Drop?
by Osman Parvez The New York Times got it wrong. It's what happens when you want to write (or are told to) about the real estate bubble bursting, but the numbers don't exactly support your thesis. A recent NY Times piece reported a 2.7% drop in existing home sales. The author notes that homes still showed increased appreciation nationwide, "by 16.6 percent to $218,000 compared to the median -- or midpoint -- price in October 2004." Ok, given this information, a reader might think the 2.7% drop is referring to the same period, year/year (October 2005 vs 2004). Oops. The [...]
Fed Meeting Minutes Released
by Osman Parvez After the minutes of the Fed's November 1st meeting, according to the Wall Street Journal, "Investors cut the odds of future rate increases. Instead of expecting the Fed to stop raising rates once its short-term rate target, now 4%, reaches 4.75%, investors currently give slightly higher odds on a halt occurring at 4.5%." The next policy meeting is December 13th, when according to interpretation, the Fed could begin becoming more opaque with its policy decisions, no longer signaling to the market its intended course of raising or lowering rates. For you Bubble Watchers, the following minutes noted [...]
Housing Market Cooling?
by Osman Parvez Since Toll Brothers (TOL) announced it was lowering its earnings estimates for the quarter, housing markets across the country seem to be reverberating. A rash of new articles about the cooling market have also emerged. Here's one from the New York Times. Keep in mind that our region was hailed by economists as an example of a soft landing only a few months ago in this article, also from the New York Times. The areas that saw the greatest appreciation are those that are now most at risk. As noted in our research piece on the bubble [...]
Oops, Maybe Not a Bubble Everywhere
by Osman Parvez Looks like the New York Times is finally catching on. No Virginia, it's not a bubble everywhere! If you don't happen to live in Boston, New York, Washington DC, or anywhere along the California coastline it may actually be cheaper to buy a home now than twenty years ago. That's in real dollar terms (the terms that matter). I believe the "widespread sense" that buying a home more expensive is misguided. Alas, for the most part I expect to see an up-tick in sensationalized "bubble bursting carnage" stories from the mainstream media in the coming months. Meanwhile, [...]
