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A Nation at War

Wars inflict enormous human and environmental costs. Suffering on their side and on our side is already immense. While I cautiously hope for a future where Iran is a secular democracy, I’m skeptical this is how we’ll get there.

So, I guess… let’s talk about the impact to the real estate market.

The war in Iran, coupled with growing unease over the potential for massive white collar job loss from Ai, is clearly giving some buyers pause. This is to be expected. In times of growing uncertainty, people hold off making major decisions – including the high dollar acquisition of a home. Some are still moving full-steam ahead despite the uncertainty, perhaps having already held off this decision for several years.

As a consequence, we’re still seeing bidding wars for certain homes in desirable locations, particularly in the entry to mid-level of the market. Meanwhile, the market remains tepid at the high-end. It’s currently so slow that luxury agents are holding broker only open houses in an attempt to (a) stir up business and (b) show their clients that they’re at least making an effort to procure a buyer and maybe (c) drink their troubles away.

The Comprehensive Plan
City and County staff have unveiled the new draft Boulder Valley Comprehensive Plan. If you weren’t paying attention before, you better start. This document your wake up call.

To be clear, it isn’t a mild refresh. It’s a completely new approach to how development occurs in our community.

Remember: In our form of local government, elected officials have less power than professional managers and staff. As I’ve said many times, the tail wags the dog when it comes to power in Boulder. And for their own interests, the tail wants development, lots of it.

If they get their way, our current hyper local zoning framework of 20+ land use designations will be thrown out the window. What were single family, low density, family neighborhoods will become large apartment buildings stuffed between what little remains of our single family housing stock. Staff calls this “Neighborhood 1.”

“Neighborhood 2” will have even larger apartment buildings and “denser housing types.” The focus here will be residential “multi-unit” and “group living,” whatever that is. These buildings will also support commercial, civic, and… urban agriculture. I’m not kidding. Look at page 81 for a table showing “What you can expect.”

If you’ve never lived in a high-density city, it can be hard to visualize this Boulder of tomorrow, but all you have to do is look at the cartoon renderings of what the new “neighborhoods” will look like. Gone are single family homes with private backyards. Instead, you get apartment buildings and row homes.

Be sure to note the relative absence of cars in the drawings. Somehow, magically, all of these new Boulder residents will show up without needing a car.

Steve’s Point
By now, many of you will have read Steve Pomerance’s recent editorial: Opinion: Crowded, congested and dry – the future of Boulder

In it, he wrote:

“There are about 27 projects at various stages, totaling over 15,000 new units. That could increase to potentially over 20,000 new units because of densification allowed under Ordinance 8666 (the “big, beautiful, vibrant neighborhoods” ordinance) passed last year. Boulder already has over 47,000 housing units, so 20,000 more units represents over a 42% increase, and potentially about a 40% increase in population.“

He goes on further to include the development of the Planning Reserve and the airport, which if successful, could balloon our population from about 107,000 to 167,000.

Even if you question his estimates and discount it by half, our city was simply not designed for that many people. Our roads aren’t engineered for it. Our water supply is inadequate. Our waste disposal system is insufficient. It’s an untenable future, but it’s also where this tail is wagging our elected officials.