Understanding Prices in Devil’s Thumb [An Interesting Question]
by Osman Parvez A new client recently asked me about the sustainability of upwardly moving prices in Boulder. He was specifically interested in the Devil's Thumb neighborhood. It was an interesting question. Devil's Thumb is an attractive neighborhood in Boulder but do the fundamental economics of supply and demand support continued price appreciation? Given my investment analysis background, I'm probably more qualified than most Realtors to answer. If you're a regular blog reader, you know what happened next. I'm not about to answer by the seat of my pants. Although I've done several transactions in Devil's [...]
Fresh Listings – 3/21/14 [Get ‘Em Hot]
by Osman Parvez Ready for this weekend's showings? Here's the breakdown: 40 properties hit the MLS this week. 10 are worth seeing (my picks) 7 are already under contract 7 are relisted old inventory 21% of the truly new (not relisted) inventory went under contract within the week. One of those didn't even hit the MLS before it was under contract, a potential disservice to the seller (who knew how much the open market would pay?). Current Boulder inventory stands at 431 properties, 41% which are under contract. Here's a link to download this week's FRESH LISTINGS. --- Like [...]
The Boulder Market – Bubblicious?
by Osman Parvez For the past year or so, I've had many private conversations about whether the Boulder real estate market is moving into a period of strong and sustainable appreciation or whether we're looking at a new real estate bubble. I hate to say it but the consensus among clients and colleagues is that it's starting to look a little bubbly out there. Last year saw double digit appreciation for traditional houses and nearly double digit for condos in Boulder. This year, market activity appears to be even frothier with bidding wars for every entry level house [...]
Inventory Shortage Rages On [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez As long term blog readers know, I love data analysis and effective visualizations of trends. Occasionally, I'll get side tracked but most of the content on this blog remains very analytical. Here's a look at the ongoing inventory shortage in Boulder County. The chart above shows the most recent inventory level compared to the long term average for the month. Boulder, Boulder attached dwellings, Longmont, and Louisville are shown. Inventory this year is running more than 55% below the long term average (2004-2013) in the City of Boulder. It gets worse in Longmont and [...]
Dirty Data [Visualize This]
by Osman Parvez This post is mostly for the Realtors in the audience but it should also concern those who track real estate markets in Boulder and beyond. Back in January, I wrote an open letter to BARA concerning an data error in their statistical analysis. The chart below is a visualization of a problem with dirty data. IRES and Metrolist (METRO) provide MLS services for our region. Throughout Boulder County, IRES dominates the market (blue). In some locations, Broomfield most notably, Metrolist has a significant market share (grey). The data provided by the Boulder Realtor Association, [...]
Understanding Appreciation Rates [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez Most of my clients are buyers and sellers of primary or vacation homes, but they still care deeply about their home's investment potential. Real estate is often the largest financial decision that most people make, it's not surprising that we'll sometimes delve into a bit of analysis. Boulder condos appreciated 9.8% last year, on average (the median price increased 6%). What about your condo? How about that property you are seriously considering buying? Did it appreciate 6-10% last year? The short answer is no. The long (real) answer is that it takes time [...]
Reg Z – Impact in Boulder?
by Osman Parvez On January 10, the new Qualified Mortgage Rule went into effect. Created under Dodd-Frank, the rule tightened lending standards in exchange for increasing lender protection from liability. In theory, this should allow easier securitizations - important as the Fed kills off its quantitative easing programs. On the ground here in Boulder, overall sales volume dropped 13.7% since the rule went into effect (chart) but sales of $1MM+ properties has continued at the same pace as last year. From a Loan Engine Keeps Humming (WSJ): Many in the mortgage industry worried that the "qualified mortgage [...]
This Week’s Fresh Listings in Boulder [Get ‘Em Hot]
by Osman Parvez Did you think I forgot about you, my dear blog readers? Of course I didn't! The weekend may be half over but there's still time to see some property in Boulder. Forty-eight listings hit the market this week. Here's the breakdown: Osman's picks: 13 Imaginary (not built yet): 6 Under contract: 7 Flips: 3 Refreshed: 7 If you exclude the imaginary listings and the refreshed old listings, 17% of new inventory went under contract within the first week of listing. Most of those had accepted an offer within two days. Now do you understand why [...]
Elder Care Facility Now Flop House – A Curious Tale
by Osman Parvez Here's the curious tale of 1795 Quince Street. I can share this real estate adventure as my client is no longer pursuing the property. Once upon a time, 1795 Quince was a regular house on a relatively quiet street in N. Boulder. It was owned by a real estate agent who listed and sold it for $299,500 back in 1997 (listing sheet). The buyer of the five bedroom, three bath home was a non-profit called Anam Chara, which agreed to restrictive covenants in exchange for government subsidies. The restrictions included a requirement that the [...]
Boulder Condos Also in Short Supply [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez On Tuesday, I posted an update on market conditions for traditional homes in Boulder (link). Now let's look at the market for town homes and condos (i.e. attached dwellings). Inventory Just as with traditional single family homes, there's a shortage of condos and town homes in Boulder - and it's getting worse. The spring market has even less inventory than last year. As of this writing, only 187 properties are on the MLS - about 17% below last year. 111 of those units or 59% of inventory is available for purchase (not under contract). [...]
Boulder is Desperate for Inventory [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez We're still about a week from the official data release for February. Let's take a look at the preliminary numbers for Boulder Real Estate. The following analysis is for single family detached homes (i.e. no condos or town homes). For an in-depth analysis of Boulder real estate, sign up for House Einstein Research HERE. My next report is coming soon. Sales Volume 42 houses sold in Boulder last month, about the same as the previous year. Over the last six months, 334 sales have occurred - an increase of 5%. Inventory [...]
March Comes in Like a Lion [Fresh Listings]
by Osman Parvez $37,000,000 of inventory hit the MLS in Boulder this week; 59 town homes and condos, for a total selection of 361 properties. Here's how it breaks down: 29 new houses 30 new town homes and condos 13/59 new inventory already under contract (22%) 149/361 total inventory under contract (41%) My review with some notes (and picks!): UPDATE: I don't like how the embed is dragging the page down. Here's a link to download the PDF directly. --- Like this analysis? Subscribe to my research. Want to meet me in person? [...]
Buy on the Rumor, Sell on the News [Coming Soon]
by Osman Parvez The feeding frenzy over new listings in Boulder reminds me of my equity research days, when the firm's traders would buy on the rumor and sell on the news. The whisper, as it was called back then would fuel all sorts of speculative activity. Speculation was never my thing (I was on the research side) but it was fun to watch from the sidelines. Anyway, here's a whisper for you. I was checking out a used bicycle for sale (a full suspension 29'er, if you're curious) and I heard of a luxury house [...]
Weekend Plans? Let’s See Some Houses [Fresh Listings]
by Osman Parvez 32 listings hit the MLS this week and three are already under contract. About half of the available listings are actually worth seeing, in my opinion. If you're interested in showings via yours truly, call me at 303.746.6896. Here's the rundown with some commentary: Update (3/12): I don't like how the embedded document is dragging the view around. Here's a link to download the PDF directly. --- Like this analysis? Subscribe to my research. Want to meet me in person? Attend a Boulder Real Estate Meetup. Ready to buy or [...]
Washington Village Update [Pics!]
by Osman Parvez To help prepare for the upcoming meetup on development, I've been visiting local projects underway. Washington Village I last posted about Washington Village when they broke ground three years ago but the project actually dates back at least six years. The developer ran into community opposition and a market downturn, gumming up the works. Let that be a lesson to would be developers. In Boulder, it's smart to have community buy-in. Read more of my coverage of Washington Village HERE. Here are my favorite pics: The developer describes the [...]
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We can highly recommend Sophie. Her attention to detail and communication skills are great. Our home was in area that most realtors are not familiar with, but Sophie took extra time to get to know the neighborhood in order to give us quality service. She also brought in a professional photographer to make our home look its best. Even though the listing was in winter, the house sold quickly. With Sophie’s business and people skills, we have no doubt she will be a top realtor in the area.
Osman was a refreshingly honest realtor. He stressed through the entire process that his goal was to make me happy with my home purchase. I greatly appreciated the fact that he never shied away from pointing out the negatives as well as the pluses of different places while leaving the final decision up to me.
