Boulder Market Update: Condos and Town Homes
by Osman Parvez ---- So how do you KNOW you're getting a good deal? Simple, work with an agent who really knows the market and has the skills to negotiate a better deal. If you think about it, good negotiation requires deep market knowledge. Without it, you're shooting blind. To know the market, start by considering inventory, sales volume, and price trends - in the context of specific locations and property characteristics. Don't forget to take into account the regular seasonality of the market, with its fluctuations of supply and demand. And if the market is a bit irregular this [...]
Which Way? The Market Diverges
by Osman Parvez ---- Dean Baker is reporting on the divergence between high and low-end homes. He writes, "In several of the former bubble markets higher end home prices appear to be stabilizing, while prices for homes in the bottom tier continue to fall rapidly." In the Case-Shiller data for markets Baker examines, the low end is dropping rapidly while the high end is better holding its value. In LA, the bottom 1/3 fell by 3.2% in June and 12.2% quarterly. The top 1/3 fell only by 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. He notes similar patterns in other markets. As you [...]
What’s Really Happening in the Boulder Market?
by Osman Parvez ---- A comment appeared yesterday. I thought it was a good one, deserving to be unearthed from the dark depths of the comment archives and shared. Anon wrote, "The blog has been interesting this summer. I like the new wider topic areas. However, I think the main purpose - analyzing the local RE market - has been largely ignored the last few months. Frankly, the insight and market insider knowledge isn't there, and three monthly reports float in a month after the month in question ends. I complain only because I find this info very interesting and [...]
Boulder Tomorrow + Affordable Housing Study
by Osman Parvez ---- Here's a new site worth checking out: Boulder Tomorrow It's mission is to "serve members of the Boulder community by providing interesting information and links to issues taking place in and around Boulder. We hope it will encourage you to get involved." That sounds admirable. Given the number of issues that crop up around here, if the organizers keep up with it, it should get plenty of traffic. From the about us page: Boulder Tomorrow is a professional organization of business and community leaders who know how to get things done. We're nonpartisan and not for [...]
The Silver Fern Report – Now Available
by Osman Parvez ---- The latest Research Report, showing market conditions through April for most cities in Boulder County, has just been published and distributed. As usual, I'll post a few charts from the report in the next few days. A couple of general takeaways: Inventory continues to decline in all market areas except boulder attached dwellings (Boulder AD). Sales volume is up in Boulder, Erie, Longmont, Louisville, and the Mountains. Sold to inventory ratios improved in all markets except Boulder AD and the Plains. The best sold to inventory ratio continues to be Louisville, a long standing trend and [...]
An Expert’s View on Boulder – Lawrence Yun’s Slides
by Osman Parvez ---- It appears that Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors has put out a presentation on local market conditions here in Boulder as well as other parts of the front range. Here's a selection of slides from the presentation. The comments are mine. 2007 looks a little optimistic to me, but the NAR might be using different data. I expect the estimate to be a revised downward. See my index analysis for more details and a better dissection of Boulder's market. Subprime delinquencies are at a record high. Interestingly, delinquencies were quite [...]
Funny Money
by Osman Parvez ---- No doubt you've heard this sad, sad story. In the past, each generation of Americans saw better standards of living and higher pay. But today, the situation has changed. Wages have been stagnant for years. The American middle class is struggling, and now work longer hours for less money. Oh, but is it really true? Those decrying the end of the middle class would have you believe so. However, the analysis that most commentaries cite ignores fringe benefits. Because fringe benefits, including health care coverage, impacts standard of living. Once you add this back (and use [...]
Selling in a Tough Market
by Osman Parvez ---- Here's the situation: You're thinking about selling your property but you're worried the market isn't what it used to be. You've read the news and you're getting worried. So you search the MLS and find if there are many similar properties on the market, all at about the same price. What do you do? Although Boulder's market remains relatively strongly, there are certain sections of the market that are slower than others. Neighboring towns are generally slower as well (except Louisville). The good news is that attractive homes in nice neighborhoods with realistic asking prices still [...]
What’s Considered Boulder?
by Osman Parvez ---- A reader asked what area was considered Boulder (for statistical purposes). Most of analysis of data on this blog is coming via the local MLS which defines areas according to the map below. Boulder is areas 1/1 though 1/10. Here's the list of areas and how they correspond to the map 1. Boulder 2. Louisville 3. Lafayette 4. Longmont 5. Suburban Plains 6. Suburban Mountains 7. Superior 8. Loveland/Berthoud 9. Ft. Collins 10. Greeley/Weld 11. Estes Park 12. Metro Denver 13. Out of Area 14. Morgan 15. Logan 16. Sedgwick 17. Phillips 18. Washington 19. Yuma [...]
Housing Costs and Unstoppable Demographics
by Osman Parvez ---- From the New York Times, Housing Cost Consumed More of Paychecks in 2006: Nationally, half of renters and more than one third of mortgage holders — 37 percent, up from 35 percent in 2005, or a rise of more than 1.5 million households — spent at least 30 percent of their gross income on housing costs, the level many government agencies consider the limit of affordability. The article included the map below, showing the percentage of homeowners (with mortgages) who spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing. Looking at the map, I was [...]
SuperStar Cities: The Benefits of Talent and Capital
by Osman Parvez ---- A few months ago, a friend shared an article with me that contained an idea with unusually strong potential to impact long term property values in our region. If you're reading this blog, you're probably already familiar with the typical things that drive real estate. Read on, this particular trend deserves your attention. Why do some cities have higher real estate values than others? According to one study, it's driven by (a) the scarcity of housing units, (b) the growing number of high income families in the United States, and (c) the fact that high-income families [...]
Fresh On The Market
by Osman Parvez Last year, I wrote a piece on the issue of refreshed listings. It's when a seller (or their agent) pulls the property off the MLS and then reinserts it with a new MLS number, making it appear as if the listing was "new" on the market and restarting its days on market (DOM) statistic. A few weeks ago, Business Week even ran a story about it. The rationale? When many homes in an area are re-listed as new, it skews the "average days on market" statistic, making the market look healthier than it really is. For sellers, [...]
Cut Your Payments In HALF?
by Osman Parvez ---- I've ranted about this before, but lately I've heard a lot of ads on the radio saying how great these loans are, so I thought I'd revisit. The article from the Dallas Fed I posted about yesterday also had an eye opening chart highlighting these type of mortgages. I'll get to that too. Many of the loans being pushed on the radio offer to cut your payments in half, or push low interest rates. They are called toxic mortgages, suicide loans, and nightmare mortgages because they allow a borrow the option to not repay the [...]
Broomfield Update
by Osman Parvez I've been spending a little more time in Broomfield the last few weeks as I help a client find a home. Seems like a good time to do an update on local market conditions. The following market analysis covers home sales in Broomfield, Colorado through August, 2006. As you'll see in the graphs below, more people have listed their homes for sale this year but demand (as measured by sales volume) is essentially unchanged. Meanwhile days to offer is running lower. Home Sales Volume in Broomfield 35 homes sold in Broomfield in August, equal to August last [...]
Room for Improvement
by Osman Parvez Since first writing about the housing bubble in 2004 for The Windwalker Report, I've been saying (1) there is strong evidence for a bubble and (2) the markets experiencing the greatest appreciation were most susceptible to the downside risk. My opinion hasn't changed. By now you've no doubt heard that in some parts of the country, the housing bubble is finally deflating. In those areas, inventories are very high, sales have slowed, and foreclosures loom. Speculators have exited and those who bought in 2005 to flip, but lack the ability to hold comfortably, are starting to sweat. [...]
