Boulder Sales Volume Up Almost 20% [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez ---- 560 residential units traded hands last month in Boulder County, a 19% increase from the previous year. Within the city of Boulder, sales volume was up 15%. Longmont saw a year over year increase of 34%. As smaller cities, Superior, Louisville, and Lafayette are typically more erratic on a month to month basis. September was no exception, with sales dropping 21% in Lafayette but rising 78% in Louisville. Superior was a wash. Sales volume is a good proxy for demand. Be sure to compare it to our analysis of inventory conditions for the bigger picture. [...]
Louisville Inventory Update [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez ---- Here's an update on inventory conditions in Louisville. The red line is the total inventory in Louisville. The dark blue line is the percentage of inventory under contract. The chart goes back to June. The chart shows that the total number of available houses peaked during the summer at nearly 70 properties. Beginning in late September, it dropped to below 50, a fairy typical seasonal pattern. The real story is that the percentage under contract dropped markedly and has been on a downward trend since June, from a shockingly high 82% at the beginning of summer [...]
Buy Now or Buy Later? [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez ---- Jackson Waits for the Market Dip One of the toughest questions my investors ask is whether they should buy now or keep powder dry for the coming downturn. There are no easy answers and of course, nobody has a crystal ball, but data is something we can provide. Remember, intelligent real estate investment decisions are based on a deep understanding of local market conditions. At the moment, one of our buyers is focused on bi-level homes in Table Mesa. This part of Boulder has the best rated schools, easy access to trails and to [...]
When MLS Systems Compete, You Lose
by Osman Parvez ---- Unbeknownst to most buyers and sellers, Colorado's largest MLS's have been battling in recent weeks over data sharing. On September 1st, the MLS which covers the Denver metro area (REColorado) cut off the MLS which covers Boulder and most of Northern Colorado (IRES) completely from their data. REColorado only re-established the link after IRES agreed to severely limit data provided to their agents. As a Buyer Or Seller, What Does This Mean For You? The risk of incomplete data is that you're making decisions without getting the full picture. You might be leaving tens of thousands [...]
Market Forecast: Turbulence Ahead
by Osman Parvez ---- Heads up Boulder real estate buyers and sellers. Market indicators are pointing to changes ahead. As of the beginning of this month, inventory was down 6.5% and homes under contract had risen from 40.3% to 46.8% compared to the previous year. In other words, there are slightly fewer homes for sale and slightly more competition between buyers than last year at this time. Here's the real story - what you won't find anywhere else. Check out the following chart. The chart above shows change in sales volume (year over year) for houses in the [...]
A Change in the Wind? Boulder Inventory Update [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez ---- Happy Autumn, dear blog readers. Hot off the presses, here's our latest inventory analysis of Boulder real estate market conditions through October 1st. Think you know what's happening? You might be surprised... This first chart (above) shows inventory for Boulder houses. The brown line represents the total number of houses listed in inventory. The blue is the percentage that are currently under contract. The typical seasonal pattern shows a significant drop in both inventory and percent under contract. This year is far from typical. Total inventory has remained steady and the percentage under contract has trended [...]
Can the Fed raise interest rates? [Analysis]
by Osman Parvez ---- The Fed will hold a press conference at 2:30 ET today (livestream link). According to Bloomberg, futures contracts show a 28 percent probability that the Fed will boost rates when it meets this week. No change in rates is already baked into today's market activity. It's likely to be a non-issue, unless the Fed surprises the market with a rate increase. The most interesting analysis I found on the issue of rate increases came from a new media outlet. Ignore the sensational title. Read the high quality content in "The Fed is about to attempt the greatest [...]
The Last Surge of Summer? [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez ---- Ready for an update on inventory in Boulder for attached dwellings (i.e. town homes and condos)? Here we go. As of this morning (August 13th), total inventory has dropped to 157 units. This is up 10 from a week ago but down substantially from the seasonal peak in mid June. Meanwhile percentage of inventory under contract has increased to 71%, up from the recent low of 63% in mid July. What to make of these tea leaves? It's unusual for inventory under contract to increase after August. The majority of buyers have found their properties and [...]
The Market Signals a Downturn [The Wayback Machine]
by Osman Parvez ---- Here's one from the wayback machine: Fresh on the Market. Back in the early spring of 2007, the Boulder real estate market signaled the beginning of a downturn. Too bad wishful thinking and happy talk can't beat Mr. Market. One key indicator was the spike in refreshed, withdrawn, and expired listings. The analysis (Read: Fresh on the Market) looked at changes in sales activity for the same period (November to January) for three consecutive years. On the surface, sales volume was the same. Lurking beneath that data? A telltale indicator of a market about to [...]
Sorry Sellers, Boulder Inventory Under Contract PLUNGES [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez ---- Psst... want to know a secret? The Boulder real estate market has finally started swinging back towards buyers. If your Realtor tells you differently, get a better Realtor. As usual, no happy talk or hand waving. Let's look at the charts. Remember, intelligent real estate decisions are based on a deep understanding of the market. If you're serious about buying or selling real estate in Boulder, call us for a detailed analysis of market conditions tailored to your specific real estate situation. Don't rely on a 30,000 foot analysis to determine your strategy, not even this one. [...]
Have We Reached the Peak of the Selling Season? [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez ---- This is a follow-up to yesterday's analysis of Boulder inventory and digs a little deeper. Consider it part #2 of the inventory analysis. We'll also expand by analyzing neighboring cities including Longmont, Louisville, Lafayette, and Superior. The key question for buyers and sellers is whether we've reached the peak of the summer selling season. It's a question that impacts selection, pricing, and negotiation strategy. Let's take a look. This busy first chart shows percentage of inventory under contract over the past twelve months. Note: - A far lower percentage of houses in Boulder are under [...]
Six Years of Declining Boulder Inventory [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez ---- Ready for an update on real estate market conditions in Boulder? Here we go. Remember: intelligent real estate decisions are based on a deep knowledge of current market conditions. Don't settle for hand waving, happy talk, and old statistics too stale and generic to be useful. Get the facts about market conditions relative to YOUR specific real estate situation. If you're buying or selling real estate in Boulder or surrounding areas, CALL US FIRST. 303.746.6896. Let's start with a look at the single family house market. 115 houses are currently available, 119 are under contract and [...]
PAY Below Asking Above $1MM, SELL Dumpy Houses Below $600K [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez ---- Buying or selling a house in Boulder? This is what the market looks like right now. At prices below $600,000, more than 80% of available inventory is under contract. This is the price range where we're seeing many buyers overpay for marginal properties and where we advise the most caution for our buying clients. Conversely, it's also where we advise our sellers who own marginal properties to liquidate in order to buy higher quality assets. Percentage under contract drops as a function of increasing price, more or less as you'd expect. There's a bit of [...]
Understanding Depth of Market in Boulder Real Estate
by Osman Parvez ---- It pays to understand the market. It's painful ($$$) when you don't. The chart above shows the ratio of houses sold in Boulder during the last twelve months (LTM) compared to available inventory, separated into price ranges. In the $1.0 to $1.5MM range, there were more than 6x the number of sales during the last twelve months than current listings. In the $1.5 to 2.0MM range, the ratio drops to just under 2x. In the top tranche, homes priced from $2.0 to $3.0mm, the ratio falls to 1.4x. What's the Significance? [...]
Bidding Wars: $200,000 Give or Take [Negotiation]
by Osman Parvez ---- Preliminary real estate market data for April shows 127 sales in the City of Boulder. The vast majority sold for asking or more. The deepest discount was 14.1% less than asking. The biggest premium was 17.9% more than asking. Talk about a spread. Selling or buying? Your choice of Realtor can't be more critical. One Boulder buyer paid $200,000 more than asking last month (1526 Sunset). Another paid $210,000 less than asking (300 Evergreen). Both properties are in the same price range. There is no shortcut to understanding market [...]
