Have We Reached the Peak of the Selling Season? [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez ---- This is a follow-up to yesterday's analysis of Boulder inventory and digs a little deeper. Consider it part #2 of the inventory analysis. We'll also expand by analyzing neighboring cities including Longmont, Louisville, Lafayette, and Superior. The key question for buyers and sellers is whether we've reached the peak of the summer selling season. It's a question that impacts selection, pricing, and negotiation strategy. Let's take a look. This busy first chart shows percentage of inventory under contract over the past twelve months. Note: - A far lower percentage of houses in Boulder are under [...]
The Incredible Shrinking Louisville Real Estate Market [Market Update]
by Osman Parvez ---- Smart real estate decisions are based on accurate and timely market information. Don't have it? You're negotiating blind. We've been closely tracking the real estate market in Louisville, CO for the past twelve years. Some of our data analysis goes back nearly 20 years, including a regression analysis showing appreciation rates. Here's our latest analysis: As of this writing, total inventory in Louisville stands at 50 houses, less than half the long term average for the month of May. Inventory continues to grow in more or less the normal seasonal pattern. If the pattern holds, it [...]
MORE Bad Data (Inventory in Boulder and Louisville)
by Osman Parvez Time for a quick look at inventory in Boulder and Louisville. First a couple of details. I'll explain why these distinctions are important in a moment. Available inventory = all property not under contract + property with a first right of refusal. The vast majority of first right properties will not sell to the party who retains that right of purchase, so I'm treating it as available (and so should you). Under contract = property that is under contract with a buyer (i.e. listed as active/backup) + pending status listings. Pending usually means the property [...]
It’s Not Bragging if You Can Back It Up – [Sold!]
by Osman Parvez I just got back from a closing and while I don't usually brag about my deals, I'm going to make an exception (with my buyer's permission). This one is worth talking about. Here's the story. After a year of looking at houses, we found this buttoned up 3 bed, 2 bath in Louisville. Lots of updates, a great backyard, surrounded by homes of equal or higher value in a excellent neighborhood. It's really a fantastic house. I would have bought this house and lived there. As my client's know, I'm conservative in my praise for [...]
Inventory Shortage Rages On [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez As long term blog readers know, I love data analysis and effective visualizations of trends. Occasionally, I'll get side tracked but most of the content on this blog remains very analytical. Here's a look at the ongoing inventory shortage in Boulder County. The chart above shows the most recent inventory level compared to the long term average for the month. Boulder, Boulder attached dwellings, Longmont, and Louisville are shown. Inventory this year is running more than 55% below the long term average (2004-2013) in the City of Boulder. It gets worse in Longmont and [...]
Dirty Data [Visualize This]
by Osman Parvez This post is mostly for the Realtors in the audience but it should also concern those who track real estate markets in Boulder and beyond. Back in January, I wrote an open letter to BARA concerning an data error in their statistical analysis. The chart below is a visualization of a problem with dirty data. IRES and Metrolist (METRO) provide MLS services for our region. Throughout Boulder County, IRES dominates the market (blue). In some locations, Broomfield most notably, Metrolist has a significant market share (grey). The data provided by the Boulder Realtor Association, [...]
Market Conditions in Louisville, CO [Analyze This]
by Osman Parvez It's time for an update on real estate market conditions in Louisville, CO. The following analysis is based on data through the end of February, 2014. To receive my regular research report, subscribe to House Einstein research. Click HERE. INVENTORY As with other parts of Boulder County, the big story remains the inventory shortage. Only 20 houses were on the market in Louisville last month, down 47% from the same period a year ago. SALES VOLUME 10 homes sold during the month of February, 11% more than last year. In a small market [...]
Last Month’s Research [Get it Cold]
by Osman Parvez For those of you who aren't subscribed to my research reports, here's a look at what you're missing. You can download a few older reports from last year by clicking the links below. Enjoy! November's House Einstein Research Report (link) with Sales Data (link) December's House Einstein Data (link) and monthly sales sheet (link) --- Like this analysis? Subscribe to my research. Want to meet me in person? Attend a Boulder Real Estate Meetup. Ready to buy or sell? Call me at 303.746.6896.
Boulder Real Estate Market Research [Get it Fresh!]
by Osman Parvez Want the skinny on Boulder real estate market conditions? It turns out that the floods in September DID have an impact. Ready? It's not what you expect... Oh, I'm such a tease. Look - if you're a regular reader of this blog, you know that I provide the best research on Boulder real estate market conditions available. It's probably why you're here. There are nearly 1,500 articles published on real estate conditions on this blog, dating back to 2005. See, the thing is that my research is for clients and prospective clients, first [...]
A Detailed Analysis of Real Estate in Louisville, CO [Market Update]
by Osman Parvez Think the Boulder real estate market is intense? Check out Louisville. Note: This analysis is an overview of market conditions in Louisville, CO. If you're buying or selling, it's important to understand the market relative to your specific price range, property type, and location. Make a smarter real estate decision. Call me to schedule a confidential discussion on your unique situation. ph: 303.746.6896 My previous analysis was in March. Here's an update. Louisville continues to experience strong sales volume despite record low inventory. Last summer, I helped buyers compete in frenzied bidding wars and win [...]
Pending Sales and Inventory Availability [Market Update]
by Osman Parvez Here's a quick look at pending sales and inventory availability across Boulder County. The key metric: Percent of inventory currently under contract. The chart above shows inventory of homes under contract with a buyer for Boulder, Boulder Attached Dwellings (town homes and condos), Longmont, Superior, Louisville, and Lafayette. Perhaps a surprise to many, Boulder has 40% under contract; less than adjacent markets. Louisville is leading the region with 61% under contract. If you're a buyer, flip that around. Boulder has more available inventory than any other local [...]
Southern Sun vs. Frasca: The Impact of Rising Rates on Boulder Real Estate
by Osman Parvez A few thoughts on the impact of rising rates on Boulder Real Estate. First Some Basics Via a monetary policy called Quantitative Easing, the Federal Reserve has been the primary purchaser of mortgage backed securities since 2008. This tool is in addition to their traditional lever over the discount rate. The Fed buying vast quantities of mortgages is the primary reason that mortgage rates have been so low, falling from an average of 6.03% in 2008 to 3.66% in 2012 (data). The Path to Higher Rates Last week, the Fed [...]
NEW LISTING: 4 Bedroom home in Louisville [COMING SOON]
by Osman Parvez We're making final preparations on a new listing in Louisville. Photography will follow shortly and it will go active on the MLS in early July. YOU can get a sneak peak by contacting me sooner. 519 Adams Avenue (UNDER CONTRACT) The house is most similar to 519 Adams (listing sheet), which went under contract after only 3 days on market with an asking price of $429,000. It's a well maintained 4 bedroom, 2 bath with about 2,000 SQFT on a quiet cul-de-sac. Oh - and when I say "most similar," i mean [...]
Louisville, Get it Hot [Listings]
by Osman Parvez If you're shopping for real estate in Louisville right now, take a peek at this house. I was at this listing earlier today to take preview photos for a client. It appears they are going to pass on it, so I'm sharing it with you on the blog. As you should already know, the real estate market is extremely active. 37% of inventory in Louisville is currently under contract, which is absurdly high for January! Let's be honest. At least half of inventory at any given point is probably not worth considering (unfixable layout [...]
What’s Really Happening in the Boulder Market?
by Osman Parvez ---- A comment appeared yesterday. I thought it was a good one, deserving to be unearthed from the dark depths of the comment archives and shared. Anon wrote, "The blog has been interesting this summer. I like the new wider topic areas. However, I think the main purpose - analyzing the local RE market - has been largely ignored the last few months. Frankly, the insight and market insider knowledge isn't there, and three monthly reports float in a month after the month in question ends. I complain only because I find this info very interesting and [...]
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