Boulder Inventory Update [Analyze This]
Time for an update on current market conditions in Boulder. Let's take a look at inventory. The chart above shows detached single family houses in the City of Boulder (excluding Gunbarrel). As of this writing, 28% of houses are under contract (active/backup or pending status). 72% are available. Inventory below $1M continues to be in extremely short supply. As a general rule of thumb, we advise our clients that often less than half of the homes in a given price range are actually exciting enough to want to write an offer. In other words, "available" is not the same thing as "desirable." [...]
Bidding Wars are Back? [Analyze This]
Note: The following analysis was published in House Einstein's client newsletter dated February 8th. Discussion of active listings only available to subscribers. Sign up.What's New?The team at House Einstein is gearing up for a strong spring season. We have a number of new listings and several active buyers now entering the market. Anecdotally, we're also starting to see bidding wars (see notable sales below) but January market data paints a different picture. Deep market knowledge is how we help our clients make smarter real estate decisions. This means analyzing the market in detail, something that I've been doing religiously since 2005. Every month, we look [...]
The Market is Off to the Races [Analyze THIS]
What's Happening in Local Real Estate?And the 2022 housing race begins...I had just completed writing my annual forecast for the market and out shooting photography, when the Marshall Fire broke out. The following week was largely consumed helping our clients, tenants, friends, and general community. Our generators and emergency heaters were loaned out to keep homes warm, and my attention was completely focused on this horrific event. As a consequence, I didn't published the analysis. I'll share it with you now. Here's a link to my 2022 Crystal Ball.Several weeks later, I believe my analysis holds up for most of the Denver metro area, with one [...]
Autumn is Cooling, So is the Market [Market Update]
Note: The following analysis was published in the latest edition of Fresh Listings, our regular newsletter to our clients, prospective clients, and colleagues. Click HERE to sign up.It's not just the weather getting colder. The market is finally showing signs of seasonal cooling. In both Boulder and Denver, pending sales were still well above average last month but trending lower than last year's frenzied pace. The exception was for condos and townhomes in Denver, where pending sales were up 16% YoY last month and are currently tracking 50% above average. Sold price data shows a similar pattern, across the board. Prices were [...]
So, Who Left Money on the Table? [Analyze This]
How much are buyers paying? The facts might surprise you. In our latest Fresh Listings newsletter, I analyzed the most recent sales in Boulder and Denver. The analysis is compelling. Median paid over asking, in deals where there was a perceived bidding war, exceeded 7%. Meanwhile, a surprising number of homes actually sold for less than list price. That's right, I'll say it again: A surprising number of homes sold for less than the list price last month. On the ground, we're seeing buyers continue to play herd ball and target some listings to the exclusion of others. It's creating quite a roller coaster marketplace. Meanwhile, [...]
How’s the Market, Osman? [Analyze This]
The latest data shows the Colorado real estate market continues at a heated pace, with the majority of house buyers in Boulder and Denver Counties paying a premium to the list price. From when I last analyzed the market, about a week ago, the median premium paid has increased in Denver by about 0.26% but is essentially unchanged in Boulder. The chart above shows the distribution of premiums, or discounts paid to the list price on the Y axis. The x axis is the final sale price. The time period is April 19 to April 27, or roughly the past week. The [...]
This Crazy Market [Market Update]
The current real estate market is extreme. At House Einstein, we've known this since things opened up after the Covid lockdown. We're market participants. As Realtors, we directly advise buyers and sellers through the real estate transaction process and serve clients from Denver to Fort Collins. First quarter data is now in. Rather than share typical Realtor anecdotes (and hyperbole), let's take a deep dive into the data. As my momma used to say, facts don't lie. The chart above shows the distribution of premium (or discount) paid for single family home transactions vs. the list price. The blue dots represent 1Q20. [...]
A Few Thoughts on Thanksgiving
Silent gratitude isn't much use to anybody. -G.B. SternWhen I was a child, our family gathered together on Thanksgiving to be with others from our immigrant community. Often, it was the first and second generation immigrant children who had learned about the holiday from school and their friends. Thus, the tradition passed on, as it has for many immigrants to America. This Thanksgiving, things will be a little different. Our family won't be gathering together. We're doing our own thing. As the saying goes, absence makes the heart grow fonder. It's with more than a touch of sadness, but tremendous gratitude, that I reflect back on decades [...]
The Calm Before the Storm [Analyze This]
Let's talk about the real estate market. I just wrapped up two days of obsessive data crunching on market conditions. My analysis paints a picture of a market gone wild in response to rapidly changing economic and social conditions. I've put together dozens of charts, but rather than inundate you, I'm going to share just one. You're looking at inventory levels for single family, detached homes in Boulder, Boulder County, and Denver. It's based on the latest market data (through the end of October) and shows inventory levels relative to the 3 year average. Inventory last month was 40% below average (red line) [...]
For Sale, Friendly Occupant Included [ Fresh Listings, Get ‘Em Hot]
Hi Folks. I just finished writing our latest edition of Fresh Listings. It includes the very curious tale of what once seemed to be a great investment in a tony Denver neighborhood, but now appears to a landlord's nightmare. Why? Well, let's just say you're not just buying the house. You're buying a big problem: the home has occupants who seemed to have stopped paying rent and, in case you missed it, Colorado has a statewide eviction moratorium. After months of struggle, the owner has had enough. They want out and they want out, fast. It's being offered at auction, with a starting price [...]
November and December | Anything Goes?
Welcome to November in Boulder real estate. The last two months of the year are typically slow . If you're shopping for a home, on average, you can expect slightly more than 50 new houses to hit the market this month and about half that in December (pink circle).The condo and town home market follows the same pattern (chart above), however note the elevated level of new listings hitting the market on the right side of the chart. As discussed in our recent analysis of market conditions, it looks like this influx of attached dwelling inventory might be a short-term opportunity [...]
The Joe Rogan Effect [Analyze This]
What does Joe Rogan have to do with Boulder real estate? Put on your snorkel. It's time for another dive into market data for Boulder and Denver real estate. An important note about the information presented below. Some of the charts show monthly data expressed as a percentage from the average. So for example, when you see +27%, it means 27% above the average for that month. It does not mean 27% of the average. Capiche?SUPPLYWhen faced with uncertainty, people take fewer risks. It's just human nature. Since Covid-19 hit, potential sellers of single family houses have bunkered down. Beginning this spring, inventory of homes [...]
Nobody Has a Crystal Ball [Analyze This]
The summer season is wrapping up. At the moment, the team at House Einstein is actively engaged in multiple real estate deals and focused on helping our clients successfully navigate the process to buy and sell property. With that said, this is traditionally the time of year when peak market activity wraps up and we can begin to devote a bit more time to analysis. As we've been riding a wave of market activity, I've been wondering about what lies ahead. Record low mortgage rates, an artificially delayed seasonal market (due to Covid), and ultra low inventory for detached single family [...]
Boulder’s Post Covid Real Estate World [Analyze This]
How's the Boulder real estate market and what does the future hold, post Covid? Let's talk about it. Boulder Market Update The shaded area in the chart above represents the 3 year average, per month. The yellow line is the most current data. The error bars represent 1 standard deviation. 169 new single family houses hit the market last month, in the City of Boulder - 26.1% above average and 23.4% higher, year over year. This is somewhat surprising after a fairly routine May and June performance. Despite the influx of new listings, total inventory is trending downward. Last month, [...]
Boulder Condo Sales SPIKE, Inventory STILL High [Analyze This]
The shaded area in the chart above represents the 3 year average, per month. The yellow line is the most current data. The error bars represent 1 standard deviation. After the Covid lock down lifted, new listings spiked in May and the usual peak in new listings was pushed back by a month. Last month, new listings were nearly 24.9% above the 3 year average but down 4.3 % year over year. Total inventory of town homes and condos in Boulder has been elevated for some time. In certain price ranges and locations, there is very little market activity. Meanwhile, [...]
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Testimonials
We can highly recommend Sophie. Her attention to detail and communication skills are great. Our home was in area that most realtors are not familiar with, but Sophie took extra time to get to know the neighborhood in order to give us quality service. She also brought in a professional photographer to make our home look its best. Even though the listing was in winter, the house sold quickly. With Sophie’s business and people skills, we have no doubt she will be a top realtor in the area.
Osman was a refreshingly honest realtor. He stressed through the entire process that his goal was to make me happy with my home purchase. I greatly appreciated the fact that he never shied away from pointing out the negatives as well as the pluses of different places while leaving the final decision up to me.
